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The upside is that it really is possible to become sufficiently knowledgeable about markets that you can indeed guess right more often than wrong.

And the higher your level of predictive accuracy, the further you can pull away from that miserable 1% allocation of funds yielding a 0.08% return (you see, even I find myself slipping into inappropriate conventional investment jargon).

The hypothetical best case scenario for binary options trading is 100% accuracy all the time – the math then posits that you can always wager the full amount of the pot and always expect an 80% return.

Put in context of the 100 trades example we’ve been using, this would net you close to $3,700,000 (using the Kelly Criterion to manage your money) but… it’s right up there with speed of light travel – not even remotely possible.

However, you might be surprised to learn that while guessing right less than 56% of the time will always wipe you out in the end, if you can get to 60% then you should be able to consistently make nearly $500 profit from your original $1,000 averaged out over every 100 trades.

This again assumes using Kelly to safely allocate stakes at 10% of your running pot, rather than always flat betting 10% of the initial pot, which often delivers a greater return over the short term but at the risk of total wipeout. It also fails to reward greater predictive accuracy – you would have netted “only” $80,000 using flat betting in this example.

The basic difference is obvious – betting say a fixed 10% of the initial pot exposes you to total loss if you get a run of 10 losses and doesn’t take advantage of winning positions; a variable 10% of the current pot can never result in total loss because the amount at risk always varies and it will increase returns from winning positions.

Never Mind The Bollox, Here’s The ONE Thing

So forget all the jibbering drivel about online tutorials, demo accounts, range of options and all the other fluff that poses (unconvincingly) as information on eejitHow, wankerHow, whoFuckingCaresHow etc. The only thing worth shit is this…

How accurately can you predict what will happen in particular financial markets? More specifically, how close to 60+ percent can you get? Because if you cannot do that then you will get a much better and much safer ROI by putting your money IN the market rather than ON the market.

And conversely, if you really can call market outcomes that well – and have the stats to back that claim up – then you’re almost certainly savvy enough not to fall for scam platforms and certainly don’t have much use for fuckheads bleating platitudes about mobile access and customer support, all the while seemingly oblivious to the fuck-off sized elephant reclining on a chaise-longue in the corner.

Binary options trading is pure gambling, but it’s not pure chance. All successful gambling relies on being better (or at least better informed) than the other players. It’s the impulsive, the ignorant, the stupid, in short the majority of other participants who fund both the brokers and the successful traders.

So what it boils down to is that you don’t have to be perfect; only better than most of the others to the extent that you are able to let the math run your way rather than run you over. Manage just that ONE thing and all the rest is mere detail.

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